Before I get to the subject matter of this article, I’m going to give you an example of what I’m talking about using a $5/$10 NL hand I played on Bodog earlier this year. It was a six-handed game and it folded to me on the button. I had two kings and made my standard raise to $30. A player who is decent, but slightly too loose, called in the big blind. I started the hand with $1,225, and he covered with a stack of $1,663.

As you read this paragraph, decide what you would do on each decision before reading ahead. Cover the upcoming words with your hand if you need to. The flop came 5♥ 6♦ 4♦ (I had K♥ K♣). The big blind checked. There was $65 in the pot, and I bet $55. He called. The turn was the 6♥. He checked and I bet $150 into the pot of $175 and he called. The river was the A♠ (no flush possible) and he checked again. This is the most interesting decision of the hand. What do you do? I bet $350 into the pot of $475. The big blind called and mucked his hand.

The World Series of Poker is coming to a close, and the biggest mistake I saw from competent players was missing value on the river. As Mike McDermott said in Rounders, “You play for a living, it’s like any other job. You don’t gamble, you grind it out…. Get your money in when you have the best of it, protect it when you don’t. Don’t give anything away.”

Well, if you’re not getting your money in when you have the best of it, you’ve already lost half the battle. Sure, you won’t lose money when you check behind on the river with a strong hand, but you won’t win much either.

Let’s analyze the above K-K hand. The board is scary. It’s paired and there are straights possible. The river brought an overcard to our pair. Scary, right? Not really.

We can’t bet because of the ace, right? Why not? He just called pre-fl op, and then check-called the fl op and turn, so he should virtually never show up with a big ace like A-10 or A-K here. He can definitely have ace five or ace four, but there are many more combinations of fives and fours that we beat. He could have A-7 or A-x of diamonds, but there’s a really good chance he would have gotten a bet or a check raise in on either the fl op or turn with those hands.

This is a very important side note. Why does it matter that he might sometimes play A-7 differently? Let’s say hypothetically that he plays 8-8 like this every time. Normally A-7 would be more likely because there are fewer combinations of 8-8 in the deck (for the same reasons you get dealt A-K more than A-A). However, since A-7 might play differently on any street, the amount of times we will be up against it in this specific spot are roughly the same as the times we will be up against 8-8. The same logic applies to aces. Sure, maybe he’ll have pocket aces on this river, but given the way the hand played out, how likely is it? Maybe one out of a hundred people would play aces like that… maybe.

Ok, so we lose to A-7 or A-x of diamonds… sometimes. What else are we afraid of? The 6? Is he really going to play 7-6 suited by just check-calling the flop and turn? Highly unlikely given the draw heavy texture of this board. He’s gonna get a raise in. What about a fl opped straight? Again, it’s highly unlikely. He needs to get value in now, especially given how many scary river cards there are for him.

So there’s not that much we lose to. The next question is, what hands are we hoping he has that we can get value from? He can have many combinations of fives and fours including 5-4, Q-4 suited, K-5 off-suit, 7-5, etc. There are also many pocket pairs he can have including 2-2, 3-3, 7-7, 8-8, 9-9, and occasionally even higher pocket pairs if he decided to get tricky with them.

So although it’s still very possible we don’t have the best hand, it’s simply too likely we are ahead and we need to bet.

The second issue with this hand is the river card. Won’t it kill our action? If you are an aggressive player, it shouldn’t. Let’s say our opponent has 8-8. If he sees this river card, he’s going to expect us to bluff it. Why? Simply because it’s an overcard to the board. Not only that, but it’s one we can actually represent.In other words, if we have stone nothing, and are trying to sell the story of a bluff, we can pretend we bet the fl op and turn with A-3 as a semibluff, and then improved on the river to a real hand that we can now value bet.l Even forgetting that logicpeople tend to think, “Oh, an overcard came. He’s going to bluff it.”

Of course, I said, “If you are an aggressive player” for a reason. If you never bluff, it becomes much harder to get called on this river. I’m not going to tell you that you need to bluff a lot to win at poker (you don’t). However, if you are a tight player, it is very valuable to have the image of someone that can bluff. You will simply get called on the river a lot more often, and that is exactly what you want. So what can you do about this? The most obvious would be to bluff a lot, but there are other soluctions as well. If you are against people that think you never bluff, feel free to show one every now and then even when you aren’t called. When a nit makes a big bluff, it tends to last in players’ heads for a long time. The opposite of this works too. Don’t show the nuts every time you make a big bet! Many conservative players will do this without realizing how much it hurts them. By doing this, you are removing all doubt that they should ever call you with a bad hand on the river, when that’s exactly waht you want them doing. Create an image where they are curious and want to pay to see your set or your flush.

The point I want to drive home is simply that you play poker to make money. Sure, some people like to make money by bluffing and stealing pots, bet everyone who plays poker shouw want to make as much money as possible when they are confident they have the best hand. You might not think it’s a big deal when you check the river with A-K on the king-high board because “the pot’s big enough” or “there’s a small chance I’m beat!” However, if they would have called your $500 bet, that’s $500 less in profit you will have at the end of the night. IF a penny saved is a penny earned, then a penny no value-bet is most certainly a penny squandered.

So next time you check taht big hand on the river, think to yourself, “Should I have expected to have gotten value on that river?” If the answer is yes, you probably missed a bet.