Dec27th
Welcome to the new ZeeJustin.com!
The site is still under construction, but now that the blog is up and running, I’ll catch you up on a few things.
The site has been in limbo, so I never got to write about the 2nd half of my Bellagio trip. Last I wrote, I was pretty disappointed as I bubbled two separate events.
I played the $15,000 buyin in at the Venetian and started off pretty well. There were only 57 players, but I was one of the chipleaders going into day two. I got caught in a somewhat embarrassing spot on the televised table against Sorel “Zangbezan” Mizzi. The hand was so long ago that I don’t remember the preflop and flop amounts, but here is the gist of it: He raised preflop, and I called from the big blind with JT of hearts. The flop come K97 with one heart, giving me a double gutter and a back door flush draw. I check called a small bet on the flop, and the turn brought the 5 of hearts, a pretty good card for me.
I checked and Sorel bet 10,000. I check raised to 30,000. At this point Sorel thought for a long time, and it was a really tough spot for him. Sorel and I talk a lot online, and he knows that I like to be the one putting in the last bet when I’m semi bluffing, and I thought that would work to my advantage. I made the mistake, however, of not realizing how draw heavy this board was. I didn’t think of all the combo draws I could have on the turn like a pair and a flush draw, or a pair and a gut shot.
Sorel was smart and realized all the draws I could have in my range, and decided that it was a push or fold spot, since calling would leave him in a tough position on most river cards. This is true with any hand he could have with showdown value from KJ to top set. After a few minutes, Sorel made the right play and moved all-in.
I wasn’t really expecting Sorel to think of it as a push/fold spot (big mistake on my part), and that really put me in a tough spot. Given the amount of time he thought for and other lollivetells, his hand was basically face up. It was AK or AA with a maximum of 1 heart.
It was somewhere in the vicinity of 60,000 more for me to call, and the pot was laying me just slightly over 2-1. I figured I would have on average 14.5 outs, so I was right around the break even point (44 remaining cards in the deck and 14.5/44 ~ 30%). The extra chips in the pot were enough to give me several thousand chips in positive equity with a call.
Also, If I called and lost, I would be left with 2,000 chips or so. However, due to the antes, when you are that short, your chips are about 3 times as valuable. Take a 30/60 stud game with a $5 ante. If there are 8 players at the table, and you are all-in for $5, your eqtuiy is a lot more than $5. You will generally be playing against 1 or two opponents for a chance to turn $5 into $40.
So after doing all the math, I figured that slight equity edge I had was enough to call of all my chips, and I did so, on the turn, with my draw. It was ugly, but it was the right call, and that’s how I busted in 14th place (out of the money). I hope they explain some of the math on TV so I don’t look like a complete idiot.
Naturally, Sorel was right when he pointed out that I should have led out with a bet on the turn. If Sorel raised, I would be able to move all-in, and put Sorel in a tough spot. He said he would have called if that had happened, so it would have turned out the same anyway.
Oh yeah, Sorel had AK with no hearts by the way.
So I missed two Bellagio tournaments for the two days I played the Venetian. I busted in another event or two, and then built up a huge stack in the final $5k. I was one of the chipleaders with 27 players left, but never really amassed any more chips on the way to the final table.
JC Tran showed everyone how good he is when he busted me in 9th. He put in 14,000 chips with the worst of it, and then 225,000 chips with me drawing practically dead in typical JC fashion.
I raised the CO with QQ to 22k at 4k/8k blinds. He defended the BB. The flop came 854. He checked, I bet, he check raised, and I moved all-in (I had somewhere around 240k or 30BB to start the hand). JC of course snap called with 76o – the nuts.
I guess it’s nice that I was able to manage one final table at the Five Diamond, to make a total of five final tables in two years, even if it only paid $25,000.
After that, the main event was all that was left. Unfortunately, I didn’t last very long. I ran one of my patented multi-street float / elaborate bluffs, and Noah Boeken picked it off. He went into the tank on the river for almost five minutes before finally calling with trips. As the hand was playing out, I thought for sure he was going to fold.
Cliffs notes version of hand vs Noah: He raises, I call with 98dd. Flop KK4 2 spades. He bets, I call planning to bluff the turn if he checks. Turn: 7d giving me a flush draw. He bets an amount where I start to think a king or AA is likely. The amount is small, and I have odds to call with just my draw, but leave open the option of bluffing. The river completes the spade flush, and he bets 4,000. I move all-in and it’s 10,000 more for him to call. With his betting amounts, I didn’t think he had a full house or a strong king, and thought he might lay down a weak one.
As it turned out, he had KJ, and barely managed to find his call button. He can only beat a bluff in that spot, and my line is pretty strong. He said he put me on a hand like 99 on the flop and turn, and that I turned my hand into a bluff when I realized I was behind. I wouldn’t have called the turn with 99, but I guess he wasn’t that far off from what actually went down.
I think it was a good play, and don’t regret it. The flop call is obviously debatable, but I think he shuts down on the turn a large % of the time.
So basically the tournaments went miserably for me, but somehow, I managed to eek out a win on the trip. It shocked me when I first tallied up my results. I thought for sure I lost a lot of money. Between my cash game wins and my one final table, I managed to pay for all the tournaments.
Next up for me is the PokerStars tournament in the Bahamas, the PCA. I have always had great experiences there, including my first WPT cash when I was 19, my first WPT final table bubble in 11th (which was also the first of many KK vs AA deep in major events for me), and also the first tournament I ever won with my mother watching when I won the $2,500 event there last year.
I have also met a large number of my current friends in the Bahamas, and wouldn’t pass this tournament up for anything.
After PCA, 2008 is wide open for me. I will still play a lot of tournaments, but I also want to make some more money playing cash games. I plan to spend a lot more time at Commerce playing the big mixed games and maybe some NL too. Obviously I’m going to play as many WSOP events as I can in June and August, and play a bunch of WPTs throughout the year, although probably fewer than 2007. Other than that, I’ll have to play it by ear.
Anyway, I hope you enjoy the new site. There is still more content that will be put up in the next couple of weeks.




